"different question than the fact that pace plays a role in final times and figures"

Jimbo,

Aren't you splitting hairs a bit?
Here is how I view this question.
First, pace is important in diagnosing any race. We agree.

Second, horses that spend more energy early contesting a very fast pace have less energy for the stretch run. We agree. (as you know, books have been devoted to this type of study)

Third, a horse that chases a tepid pace and tires running up the track probably earns a final figure slower than his peak capability. Not sure you agree with that.


That 'slower' figure is what you see on the TG's. The TG's are not hypothetical #'s. They are as close as one can get to being 'scientific'

If one feels a fast pace compromised an "Effort" and the race was actually better than than the TG 'figure' represents, you, as a bettor and handicapper, have a big advantage. You can look at previous "Efforts" to determine what you feel this horse can run today and ignore the 'off' race. (TG's give you a horses entire career so you see all the numbers)
For some sheet players, a horse with 'back' numbers or one cycling back to a top effort are very key plays.

I should add that there are lots of reasons horses run sub-par figures. Some of it is age, infirmities, trip, surface, the horses actual weight (something I would like to see) and, unfortunately, drugs (try to quantify that one...lol).
Thus, although I agree pace itself is an important element in any race and that a pace # itself can be determined, I don't think you can precisely determine the effect on a 'final' number. It is subjective imho.
There are many mysteries to this game. (Why do some horse thrive on soft turf and others firm? Why can't some horses handle the Churchill slop? etc etc.) Your question, as I percieve it, is just that.
Pace effect is something you develop a 'feel' for with experience.
Regards,

Bob