Class Handicapper,

I agree with you and have used your "general" example in a previous thread to Jerry. MSW horses that show sharp pace, but fade and get bad overall figures, but are still good plays in the drop to Maiden Claimers.

There really are two different things to discuss here.

1. Handicapping a race before it is run, using pace as a tool and predicting the outcome. This is what JB is challenging me to do (in the case where the "pace" play is different than the "figure" play.)

2. Accepting that pace is a factor in racing and upgrading or downgrading figures AFTER a race occurs, because of the horse's pace advantage or disadvantage.

Agreed that point #2 can be used to achieve point #1.

What I have trouble with is the fact that Jerry doesn't recognize that pace plays a role in final times and figures and disagrees with point #2.

Whether i am good enough to come up with plays beforehand on a consistent basis, using pace handicapping, is a different question than the fact that pace plays a role in final times and figures.

Even if I accept that I am a lousy handicapper and can never pick winners successfully using "pace" as an angle, I cannot be convinced that pace variants in a race don't impact the final times and figures.