Re: Today's Plays/Races and Summer End (476 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: September 07, 2004 02:26PM
Thanks for the input (seriously)-- it's been clear, not just from the number of new accounts that have been opened and sales but from the comments on this board, that a lot of new people are trying our data. A couple of things--
1-- Those 3 race patterns are not trainer specific, they apply to all summer 3yo's (etc.) that have that pattern. The breakdowns in the trainer profile ARE trainer specific. The best thing is to use them with each other, weighing them as you see fit under the specific circumstances.
You are not the first to think those are trained patterns. We're going to have to do something about that.
2-- The point of my presentation was only that it is not a safe assumption to tie races together and assume the track stays the same speed when the times of the races indicate it has changed. The only way to figure out track speeds is to use the figure histories of the horses. It is not an exact science, but once you use the individual horses (not pars, not just the winners) you have a fair amount of information to work with, and over time it gets more and more accurate, and therefore more and more easy to work with. No way to know this unless you are actually working with the data.
I watched the DVD of the expo, and I was jumping up and down with responses I wanted to make, but that I did not either because I didn't think of them at the time or because the format did not allow for direct dialogue-- when I did ultimately do that I came across as Attila The Hun. I would love to do one of those DVD's with voice over comments-- I'm thinking specifically about Friedman's comment about random distributions.
TGJB