>give me examples in advance of where it WILL be a factor that will lead to a result contrary to what TG players would predict. <

I think you are less likely to find profitable situations from pace based on pre-race predictions of how the race will develop. (some exceptions)

In fact, if anything, it's the other way around.

If it's clear there's a lot of early speed, the value will often be on one of the potential duelers because the consensus view overdoes it on the board. (War Emblem comes to mind immediately)

If everyone thinks a horse will get loose, they bake that right into the odds too.

I think you have to take those probabilities into account, but realize they are not certainties.

IMO, the value of pace is in finding horses that were overmatched in their last race because it had a fast pace for the class. 2nd and 3rd best speeds often completely collapse without it having anything to do with form. (sometimes this is predictable pre-race)

A simple example might be a duel in a MSW race in fractions that are faster than average. If a maiden claimer happened to be part of that pace, he's dead. A fast pace for a MSW horse is VERY fast for a maiden claimer. Hence, when he comes back, he can be viewed as much better than his speed figure indicates even though the pace for the MSW race would generally only be viewed as a bit faster than average and thus not have much of a "measureable" impact on genuine sharp MSW horses.

That kind of thing happens between duelers
across all classes where the pace is WAY too fast for just one or two of the duelers.

Everyone sees the really big duels. It's the hidden ones that offer value.