Pace has alot to do with final time, but its awful hard to quantify what that is, and if you cant quantify it how do you handicap it?

To illistrate how hard it can be I will use Azeri, often times she was running pace numbers well below what she was truely capable of. She would come home in decent late pace numbers but when you looked at the final figure it was very average (her 100 beyer in the ladys secret in 02' being a great example). She was certainly capable of running faster final times, as she has proven. In fact her very best overall speed figures are when she runs the half and three quarters the fastest. Her breeders cup being a prime example.

I believe this happens becuase she could run the final few furlongs just as fast as she did if she ran 46 or 47 for the half. But the difference in final time is one second slower or faster, thus a big discrepencey in speed figures. Now of course if she was overextended early it would catch up with her (ie personal ensign last week).

I hope this makes sense, though its hard to express.