I'm pretty unlikely to bet any of the following horses:

High Fly - Deserves to be the favorite, but I think he will be an underlay.

Noble Causaway - I'm a lot higher on his chances that TG, but I think he will be an underlay.

Vicarage - I didn't like his chances of getting the route in the LA Derby, but he ran very well. I'm not sure if he ran well because I underestimated his stamina, he's trained by TP, or a biased track/moderate pace carried him. I'm waiting for some of the horses from that day run back so I can come to some conclusion on if there was a bias that day. If I was confident in either direction, I would take a stand on this horse either way. However, similar to the discussion about prepping for the Derby, they don't force you to make a bet if you aren't sure what the correct value is. So why be a stubborn fool and guess? If you have a strong opinion though, this is probably a good horse to key on one way or the other.

I don't like PAB and EM as much as the remainder.

My guess is that I'm going to just watch the race because I don't dislike HF enough to get excited about betting against him. He deserves favoritism.

By the way, A huge effort out of WallStreet Scandal might also tell us something about if there was a front running/inside bias that day.



Post Edited (04-02-05 12:39)