This one is a very good question, not just in substance but in form (for all the old Racing Times guys out there). Several things--

1-- For years I have downgraded frontrunners on soft grass because experience has told me that they are less likely to run their race, and while it may or may not be related, fewer races in Europe, where the courses are generally slower, are won on the front end (I think. How's that for qualification).

2-- I actually had a conversation about this years ago with George, don't know if he remembers. One possibility is that a "faster" track, and resultant faster time, makes the race shorter-- they run for less time-- and thereby helps frontrunners. I have absolutely no idea if that is true. I do know that muscle fibers are either slow twitch or fast twitch, (aerobic or anaerobic, don't know which is which), meaning they either rely on stored oxygen or don't, and that stored oxygen runs out in a horse in about a minute under extreme exertion, or about five furlongs. The percentage of each type of fiber determines how far a horse will run well (also whether a human will be better at lifting weights or running a marathon). Don't know whether this is useful, but I suspect it may be relevent.

3-- The difference in final time between a fast dirt track and one which is not, in percentage and real time terms, is very small (as opposed to the difference between a firm grass course and a soft one, which can be pretty extreme).

4-- Don't know how we we test this, but if someone (Chris?)can figure out the right question to ask, we'll have George do a run (and in fact I can hear the wheels turning in his head as he reads this, and he's in rural Pennsylvania).



TGJB