Speed Bias? (371 Views)
Posted by:
BitPlayer (IP Logged)
Date: April 03, 2005 04:51PM
TGJB -
You are right; the question is really whether such a thing as a "speed bias" exists. (Maybe I've been watching too much TVG.) I can't think of a good physical explanation for why it should, but it's certainly a staple of handicapping jargon. For instance, I don't think I've read a single story about this year's San Felipe that didn't include a reference to the fact that closers weren't winning that day at Santa Anita. And Frankel told Bailey to send Badge of Silver based on his belief that the front end was the place to be on Louisiana Derby Day.
I'm also not sure what evidence of a speed bias would look like in the figures. Perhaps horses running on or near the pace would earn a disproportionate number of new or paired tops, but that would be difficult to measure on a statistically reliable basis.
Thanks for your time. It's been informative as always.
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