Re: Vicarage, High Limit, LA Derby (443 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: April 03, 2005 04:10PM
My position is that when there is an extremely FAST pace, the effects of that pace, if any, will only be on the figures of the ones who run extremely fast early. I don't correlate that in any way to "speed favoring" tracks, because I don't think such a thing exists. There are speed favoring layouts (short stretches), there are tracks which the jockeys think are speed favoring, where it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy (they use their horses much more early, and a 6 furlong race becomes a 4f race-- nobody changes position late). There are times at certain tracks where certain paths are better or worse (Keenland?), and frontrunners have an advantage in getting to that path. But I have never seen a "Speed bias" reflected in the FIGURES, as opposed to the results. Doesn't mean it hasn't happened, but I haven't noticed it.
It seems to me that your question relies on the premise that there is such a thing as a "speed bias", rather than examining whether it exists. But I may not understand the question.
It also seems to assume that frontrunners are at a disadvantage-- they may or may not run their races , but others always will. As a practical matter, this is clearly wrong-- frontrunners do very well in American racing, out of all proportion.
TGJB
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