i don't have much to add, but

NC - expecting a move forward to the "3" lvl. should get the perfect trip under prado from post 1. zito didn't crank up TCE for last year's fla derby, and the horse came in third despite being at least five lengths faster than the rest. i'm not sure NC will be completely cranked for this, thus the risk for a late running second or third. still, top two finish predicted.

BB - will get perfect trip. was all out last. not expecting much improvement. "5" maybe?

PAB - not looking for a forward move going 9f. wait until he cuts back.

HF - low odds contender based on # power and expected good trip. can't toss.

vicarage - rean very well last out. i get the sense that the horse was completely cranked though. pletcher probably wanted another week to prepare, but when bandini got hurt, he had to try this spot. expecting a small backwards move. i will try and beat the brilliant pletcher/jr team.

MM - maybe, but comes in on short rest. not for me.

PC - just don't see a reason why he will improve today. no thanks.

WS - "6" or "7" maybe? might have used with a better post. no.

EM - i posted on this guy in the sapling, one of my biggest hits last year. the colt is a 6f sprinter though. no.

i'm stuck with two of the three favs. flat HF/NC exacta, maybe get 4-1 or 5-1 on my play ......... see, told you, not much to add.