Re: Vicarage, High Limit, LA Derby (400 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: April 03, 2005 03:14PM
The point of posting the sheets for all 3 stakes on Louisiana Derby day was to show that running style and path made no difference in the way ANY horses ran relative to their previous ability. It wasn't just that race, and it wasn't just the frontrunners, who happened to be High Limit, Summerly and Badge of Silver (the favorites, and ones with the best figures going in). If you look at everyone from Kansas City Boy to Limehouse, you'll see that a very high percentage of horses with ALL running styles and getting ALL trips ran their race or close to it-- but the RESULTS (not the figures) were biased, by ground loss. If you don't use ground loss in your figures you can't know how well KCB, Limehouse, Pollards Vision and many others ran.
In point of fact, the only frontrunner I can remember giving a new top to was BOS-- and that was a 1/2 point new top. Several who were NOT on the lead paired tops or ran slight new tops-- but they were not as good horses, and traveled further, in some cases, so they did not appear to "run well".
I suggest that everyone with an opinion on this question (or who really wants to understand it) look at these sheets. They contain the number run that day, and if you look upper left of the page, the paths the horse ran in, and comments about where he was during the running.
As for High Limit in the Blue Grass- the questions to me in handicapping that race will include whether Frankel's horses are running well at Keenland, and who draws where. If his horses are firing, I would expect HL to run as well as his last, or better.
http://www.thorograph.com/hold/fg031205.pdf
TGJB
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