TGJB,

Wth the older horses that's certainly the case.

However, I think with guys like Frankel and Pletcher, when they are dealing with a lightly raced young horse, "the probability" that the horse will move forward is much higher than with anyone else - partly because of stock and partly because of competence. You may get slower steadier improvement, but you can pretty much count on both getting it and them having such an excellent guage on where the horse is at that point, it won't be spotted aggressively unless it's ready to compete at that level.

With other guys you might get a bigger move forward here or there because they come out shorter of peak, but you will get a move backwards way more often too. You'll also often get a horse spotted where he doesn't belong because the trainer has no clue about where he is at the time. Ex. Zito thought
Sun King was his best horse and had no idea BR was going to run that well.



Post Edited (04-20-05 17:39)