NoCaroloina Tony,

Your "lots of speed" group, doesn't have much speed. High Fly will be several lengths off the lead, Afleet Alex will probably be 5+ lengths off, and the over-under on lengths off the lead for Greater Good is probably a dozen.

High Limit has speed and may show more with the blinkers. If you want to bet against Bellamy Road based on the pace battle, I think you ought to be rooting for a nice rade out of Rockport Harbor this weekend. Rockie is not cheap speed like Spanish Chestnut or Going Wild. He is a classy horse with a very high cruising speed. He hasn't had to run sub 46 splits in his routes, but I would not bet he can't. Plus, if he makes the Derby, he won't cave in like a cheap suit after 6 furlongs, like the other "speed" horses people think might hurt Bellamy Road. I would bet Rockport Harbor would be in contention as they turn for home and take a lot of the starch out of Bellamy Road.

If Rocky makes the Derby, I think it makes Bellamy more beatable. But you still need somebody to run a negative number to win. And you probably need somebody that fast ALREADY. Not many horses fire big new tops and win the Derby. They need to be fast ALREADY.