classhandicapper wrote:

> TGJB,
>
> Wth the older horses that's certainly the case.
>
> However, I think with guys like Frankel and Pletcher, when they
> are dealing with a lightly raced young horse, "the probability"
> that the horse will move forward is much higher than with
> anyone else

Well, lets see. Its all here. We don't have to speculate (The first number is 2YO top):

Pletcher:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2005/derby_history/derby_charts/trainers/508.html

2004 Pollards Vision 4 / 7 - 2.1 - 2.1 -1.2 -17
2004 Limehouse 6 / 1 - 3 - 3 - 3

2002 Wild Horses 19 / 11 - 8 - 6 - 6 - 16

2001 Balto Star 16 / 11 - 11 - 3 - 0 - 0 - 16
2001 Invisible Ink 11 / 6 - 1 - 5 - 5 - 1

2000 Impeachment 7 / 11 - 13 - 13 - 7 - 6 - 5

2000 More Than Ready 4 / 3 - 6 - 3 - 6

2000 Graeme Hall Sheet missing from database

2000 Trippi 10 - 4 - 6 - 4 - 10

The only exceptions I can see to the Pletcher "running hard by second race" format is Balto Star and Maybe Impeachment. Impeachment retired with a maiden win and was probably running pre additives if I'm not mistaken. Balto was one of Pletcher's better overall horses in my opinion but he developed quickly and bounced in the Derby. I'm not sure he ever exceeded the Zeds.

And now Bandini who apparently moved forward large in this last race. Larger than any of his previous Derby entries as a matter of fact.

Frankel:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2005/derby_history/derby_charts/trainers/218.html

2004 Master David 2 / 6 - 6 - 4 - 6

2003 Empire Maker 6 / 6 - 0 - 0 - 0

2003 Peace Rules -7 / 0 - 0 - 2

2002 Medaglia d'Oro 9 / 7 - 2 - 2 - 2

2000 Aptitude -8 / 9 - 7 - 5 - 3

1990 Burnt Hills No Data Base

1990 Pendleton Ridge No Data Base

Some degree of skepticism is in order on Aptitude. At the time, Frankel was doing it the old fashioned way. Hes got a new approach now.

Well, for Frankel the running by the second race of the 3 yr old season is even more pronounced. TGJB obviously knows his figure database.

CH you're only defensible positions are that you were referring to Pletcher and Frankels Non Triple Crown horses or you were referring to a move up probability in the 1st or 2nd race of their 3YO season.

NC Tony.....GG had a legitimate excuse, hes a closer. If hes anywhere near the pace in the Derby hes a head case again. Your point is getting hung out and I understand it. 10 furlongs is long way under pressure unless your Seattle Slew.



Post Edited (04-20-05 18:50)