CTC,

>CH you're only defensible positions are that you were referring to Pletcher and Frankels Non Triple Crown horses or you were referring to a move up probability in the 1st or 2nd race of their 3YO season.<

I am referring to general patterns among lightly raced high quality horses that tend to develop over a season.

First off, I don't use figures alone to come to conclusions like this when it comes to evaluating horses. So I certainly wouldn't use just figures to evaluate trainers either. They are helpful. But by now you know I think there's a lot more to evaluating performance than just the figure.

The best trainer handicapper I know cuts out the PPs of all the horses that a trainer has in his barn. He studies them to look for patterns.

However he also makes subjective judgements related to trips, distance, pace etc... when making evaluations. He's also sharp enough to realize that trainers have seasons where weather and good/bad fortune can change the patterns on a temporary basis.

I don't go so far as to cut out all the PPs and keep them in folders. Nor am I as good at evaluating trainer patterns as he is. However, since I focus on stakes races I look closely at all the PPs of the best horses trained by the major trainers (enhanced with my subjective views about pace, bias, trip, distance etc..).

If Pletcher or Frankel has a lightly raced high quality horse with similar figures to another contender, all else being equal, I'll take their horse every day of every week and that includes Bandini and Flower Ally.



Post Edited (04-21-05 09:56)