I forgot to Include Rocky in my theoretical example. He does have good early speed. My only point is that PP will matter for some horses in this race. And to make any decision now in my opinion would be premature until the PP draw is out. Right Now BR is the Best Fig Horse going in, a potential bounce candidate as will AA and Bandini (a distant cousin by the way), off of there last one. BR beat second rate horses so I am not sure he was taxed for supreme effort and rather did it with natural ability. He looks to me to be best of the speed or best horse anyway.

My Point is that is you use Greater Good Ark Race as an example, and we have folks making excuses for his performance due to the fact he couldn't clear from PP10 and got used early to gain position and hung out --what happens in the derby with PP18-20 should AA or BR or RH or HF or HL get that fun post. Those collective horses have a got a 1 in 5 chance to get pp 20 and individually have a 15% chance to get 18-20.

I think the ground lost and early use of energy will be important in handicapping this particular race.

NC Tony