Saddle,

IMO you have to do a subjective analysis of the individual horse's record when you are talking about newly turned 3YOs/4YOs and improvement potential.

Sometimes you will see flat figures but only because the trainer has been trying to stretch out a horse that really prefers sprinting. Once he goes back to sprinting, the horse's real ability will show.

Sometimes a horse that should have been routing will develop rapidly once it gets a chance to stretch out.

Sometimes, the pedigree screams early or late development.

The fewer the number of starts, the more likely you will see further improvement.

Some trainers bring them back very short and some of them bring them back quite fit off layoffs.

Some trainers are MUCH better at developing lightly raced high quality stock than others.

Some trainers get many more horses with the potential to develop to work with.

IMO, one good example of subjective analysis earlier this year was Rock Hard Ten. He didn't look like he was improving much from his early 3YO form based on figures alone, but it was pretty obvious to me that he had room to improve this year once you realized that his Belmont was the easiest kind of throw out (12F and a duel up front with a vastly superior horse) and he had physical problems in his race at Monmouth.



Post Edited (06-01-05 16:50)