Re: KY Derby Futures Bets -- Pool 1 -- Post Mortem (594 Views)
Posted by:
imallin (IP Logged)
Date: February 14, 2007 10:10PM
44-1 is a great price if the horse gets in the gate. In your 44-1, you have to factor in how many times you WONT get in the gate.
Also, whatever value you had, your 200 knocked down your price from 94 dollars to 90 dollars. You 'cost yourself' around 300 bucks of value. If you DIDNT wager 200 bucks, Scat would have paid 94 which means all the other people who bet 200 would collect 9400, by wagering 200, you are going to collect 9080, or approx 300 less.
If you waited until the Derby and bet your 200 bucks, you might only receive 25-1 and not 44-1....but, on that 25-1, you WONT knock your own price down at all. With 200 to win, a 52 dollar horse still pays 52, not 48.
You might say, "Well, 44-1 is better than 25-1" but thats not necessarily so considering in a computer simulation, the 25-1 is 100 for 100 getting in the gate, where the 44-1 is going to miss a decent amount of the time.
Also, you get a lot of bang for your buck at 25-1 because you are:
1) guaranteed to get in the gate
2) get to see all his prep races and make adjustments accordingly
3) get to see post position draw, jock, etc.
4) get to see all the other contenders races and post positions
5) get to see a warmup (if you have a phone account and are betting from home watching tv)
6) get to see 'the works' on TVG.
You get lots for that 25-1. (all this assumes he's 25-1 at post time)
In my opinion, its REALLY hard to get value on only 23 betting interests. When the Derby decides to have betting on EVERY TC nominee, with hundreds of horses, THAN the value will be insane because you can get 3, 4 and 500-1 on some horses.