Re: Ilking (470 Views)
Posted by:
Chuckles_the_Clown2 (IP Logged)
Date: March 06, 2007 04:42PM
Theres no crying in baseball and theres no celebrating a future bet at even 1000-1 until the bet is cashed. Its like celebrating your stock investment before you sell and take the profit. Its premature is all.
Scat did some things in the Fountain of Youth to move him up, but theres a host of factors that are still in the mix. He's going to have to overcome a tried and true negative profile. I'm skeptical, but in the unlikely event someone cashes a future bet upon him in the Derby, I'll be the first to say congrats you've overcame a tremendous bias and broke the mold. He's still very much a longshot to win the Derby. Despite sufficient earnings, I'm guessing he won't start in it. I think Pletcher bumped him too much Saturday, but the actual speed of the race is still under review.
fkach Wrote:
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> I don't understand your thinking on Scat Daddy.
> This is a very easy horse for me to read.
>
> He flashed some early talent.
>
> He strongly hinted of better things to come in the
> Champagne where he earned a good figure closing
> down a quality field while losing a lot of ground
> despite a crawling pace.
>
> He had no chance in the BC Juvenile where he raced
> relatively close to a fast pace while far outside
> on a day when the inside seemed to be the place to
> be. A quick glance at the charts shows how the
> horses racing near the pace did in that race.
>
> He came back with a reasonable prep. IMO it was
> ideal, if you were/are trying to get a horse to
> peak in the Derby.
>
> Now, he apparently moved forward a bit (pending
> the TG figure) second off the layoff. That's
> exactly what you would want to see (unless he went
> too far).
>
> Obviously there are questions about his ability to
> stay 10F and you can't be sure he will continue
> developing between now and May. However, those are
> legitimate questions about most of the 3YOs at
> this time of year.
>
> Personally, I congratulate anyone that was wise
> enough to get a futures bet in on him prior to the
> FOY victory no matter what happens from here.
> There was a lot of value in understanding the true
> quality of his Champagne and his legitimate excuse
> in the BC Juvenile. I understood both, but didn't
> pull the trigger on any futures bets.