SoCal,

You got good odds, that was in your favor. Though in looking at Scat Daddy's pedigree I wish you'd gotten them in the Breeders Cup Sprint, he would appear much more suited for.

I'm not sure how you read Scat Daddy's past performances, but I'll chime in upon how I read them beginning with his first race:

5.5 furlongs in the slop. He gets out nicely along the rail, vies for the lead and widens well late beating the Whirlaway winner Summer Doldrums.

6 furlongs, he is gets out nicely again despite some early jostling and is life and death to outlast sprinting a horse Hard Spun has been beating rather handily. Granted they are developing and each race is unique in time.

1 turn mile, a nice wide run and manages to outlast NoBiz.

At this point there is an obvious change in his effectiveness. Any reader of Past Performances should note a couple of important facts in Scat Daddy's last two races. The first is that he had to try to negotiate 2 turns at Churchill Downs and didn't fair very well.

The other is that he caught the inside part of the one turn mile bias at Gulfstream and didn't fair very well against a horse he had beaten as a juvenile.

This horse is by Johannesburg, a sire by Hennessey and out of an Ogygian mare. To my eye that is screaming precociousness and sprinter on male side pedigree. Add to that fact his broodmare sire is by Mr. Prospector and the recipe to go on is getting mighty thin, especially in light of the fact that going on hasn't been demonstrated in his last two trips. In his favor is that the direct tail female looks pretty good. But dang its gonna have to be.

I've been wrong before and may be again but I'd take a very strong position that this is not a Derby caliber horse and think 300-1 would not be unreasonable odds.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/scat+daddy
SoCalMan2 Wrote:
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> I know people hate talking about their bets, but I
> am not shy. I put down $200 on Scat Daddy. I
> think 44-1 is a great price on a
> Pletcher-Velasquez-Tabor horse that won the
> Champagne, beat Nobiz Like Shobiz, and was 7-2 in
> the Juvenile. I think you can easily forgive both
> his Juvenile and his comebacker. I may not win
> this bet, but I still love it nonetheless (which
> is a hard thing in the KY Derby Future Pool).
> Does anybody else's office spam filter block
> emails with the horse's name in it? Mine does.
> IT guy tells me it is an obscene phrase. I wonder
> how it got past the JC.
>
> I agree with everybody who has been pointing out
> that it is crazy that the futures pool is limited
> to 24 entries. Exacta and DD pools are no
> different than what a 144 horse Derby Future Pool
> would be. There is even something in it for the
> track in that they could justify an exacta-like
> take (no more than 18%, please). With the
> enlarged betting pools such a move would engender,
> the change would bring a windfall for the track
> (and horsemen, and taxmen, etc, in addition
> increasing the entertainment value to us bettors).
> Also, if it was marketed correctly, I bet you
> could bring in a whole lot of betting from one
> time a year type people. They are happy and we
> are happy that they are in the pool. Also, with
> the way the internet works, imagine the type of
> aftermarket that could be created. I bet there
> could be an active reselling market. Now, I just
> wish I had gotten 100 $2 tickets on Scat Daddy
> instead of one $200.