Re: KY Derby Futures Bets -- Pool 1 -- Post Mortem (531 Views)
Posted by:
fkach (IP Logged)
Date: February 15, 2007 04:42PM
For this to be a profitable wager, IMO you are dealing with two main issues.
1. Estimating the chances your horse will remain sound until the Derby.
2. Estimating the chances your horse will move forward enough to become a major contender on Derby day.
Once you have a line on those two issues, you can compare the probabilities to the odds.
I think it would be very useful to look at the betting for the last few Derbys to see what percentage of the horses got hurt from the time Pool1, Pool2 etc.. opened to the day of the Derby. That would help with issue #1 in a general sense. We could always get more specific by looking at the trainer, horse's record to date.
Issue #2 is a matter of pedigree (early or late bloomer, distance lover etc...), trainer's style of developing horses (come out running, slow to develop), how much ability the horse has shown to date, number of starts it has had so far etc....
I never made any Derby future bets because I didn't think I could answer question #1 any better than any Joe Blow that picks up the DRF. However, if we had some decent stats, I surely would be tempted because I'm pretty sure I can answer question two a lot better than most.