Re: KY Derby Futures Bets -- Pool 1 -- Post Mortem (601 Views)
Posted by:
SoCalMan2 (IP Logged)
Date: February 15, 2007 10:36AM
I guess I am no genius since my first post did not use any of those three worn out words.
We are just trying to get a thread going on handicapping here -- cut us some slack, please. If you want to show us up for being idiots, at least do it intelligently. A sarcastic attack on posters rather than on their argument doesn't make you look any more genius. If you do not like the thread, ignore it.
In terms of substanstive comment, Imallin, you raise some good points, but, if Scat Daddy makes it to the Derby and goes off at 8-1 instead of 25-1, then the premium will look at lot more compensatory of the risk I took than it does in your view.
Part of my reasoning in making the play is that Scat Daddy had very good foundation, but a lot of people got off him because of two bad races (both with very good reasons to be throw out from a handicapping perspective). If he runs a superb prep, all of a sudden a lot of people will hop back on him and he will look a lot better than a 25-1 shot. I am just trying to catch him when everybody else is off him. I do agree with you that if he goes off at 25-1 in the Derby, then, even if he wins, my bet does not look so good. The premium is not enough. But, in that scenario, my analysis will have been wrong anyway and I suffer the consequences.