SoCalMan2 Wrote In Part:
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> In terms of substanstive comment, Imallin, you
> raise some good points, but, if Scat Daddy makes
> it to the Derby and goes off at 8-1 instead of
> 25-1, then the premium will look at lot more
> compensatory of the risk I took than it does in
> your view.
>
> Part of my reasoning in making the play is that
> Scat Daddy had very good foundation, but a lot of
> people got off him because of two bad races (both
> with very good reasons to be throw out from a
> handicapping perspective). If he runs a superb
> prep, all of a sudden a lot of people will hop
> back on him and he will look a lot better than a
> 25-1 shot. I am just trying to catch him when
> everybody else is off him. I do agree with you
> that if he goes off at 25-1 in the Derby, then,
> even if he wins, my bet does not look so good.
> The premium is not enough. But, in that scenario,
> my analysis will have been wrong anyway and I
> suffer the consequences.


Dear Chickles,

I see in another thread that my Scat Daddy future has piqued your interest.

Looks to me like I was talking about your ilk when I said in this thread -- "If he runs a superb prep, all of a sudden a lot of people will hop back on him."

Let me give your ilk a little handicapping lesson [i]gratis[/i] -- the reason the sheets are the sheets is that they give you the horse's ENTIRE career in one GRAPH. You are supposed to base your analysis on the entire graph, not just the horse's last race. When I used to go to Friedman's seminars, he used to always stress not to put too much weight on one number. He explained that the crowd always does this, but a sophisticated sheet handicapper should not and in fact should try to take advantage of the crowd when they do this.

Just for you, I can condense this lesson down to two words -- Sinister Minister.

Guys like you who let one race change your view from a horse being bettable at 300-1 versus being a good deal at 44-1 are a sheetplayers dream and just the kind we want in the pools.

Unfortunately, I am concerned about SC's FOY performance because I am worried that he may have shot his wad a bit too soon and actually hurt his Derby chances rather than helped them. The FOY has a strong recent history of chewing up and spitting out good 3 yos. I am hoping that this is not the case with SC, but I actually like his chances less now than I did before the FOY. I would have much preferred a race that just came back to his 2 yo top rather than a potential big jump up. I am actually hoping that his number does not come out too big.

Does anybody know if he carried the 120 or 122? Based on the conditions of the FOY, depending on how one reads the conditions, the issue would seem to hinge on what 4th place money was in the Breeders Cup. If it was $75k or greater, he maybe should have been assigned 122, if it was less, then in all cases he would have been eligible to carry 120. Those 2 lbs could be half a point. In the old days, they use to have a place in the chart for "corrected weights" just to clarify issues like this. Kudos to Elkurzhal who spotted this. I tried to check the DRF on this, but their site was down for maintenance.