I bought the Special and am intrigued by JB's comments about the Derby. The part about less contenders makes sense, but I am not sure what horses that will take money are not contenders.

In looking over the sheets for the 30 horses I will be the master of the obvious and say Pletcher has one helluva hand this year.

Any Given Saturday has the nice foundation at 2, plus the two pretty fast races in his last two preps. Considering he has only improved 1.5 points from his 2 year old top, and the sire stats say 3 points are normal for Distorted Humor, he could have a forward move in him. The 4 weeks are nice and Gomez is a good rider. Johnny V. is good, but he just didn't give this horse a good ride in the last two races this year. At 12 or 15 to 1, this horse looks like my horse to key, at least prior to PP draw.

Scat Daddy also looks tough. HE actually hasn't gotten faster from 2 to 3, which is a bad sign, but his last two races definitely make him a contender with the right trip. The lack of progression from 2 to 3 doesn't look out of line with his sire stats as Johannesburg seems to be getting precocious horses, albeit still better at routes, which seems to be contradictory, to a degree. The five weeks are good for this horse and he won't be one of the top 2 choices, so he is bettable as well. Must be used in exotics.

Street Sense is a tough call. His BC race is still the fastest race any of these horses have run and it seems there is some historical evidence to suggest that Nafzger's horses are not cranked in their last preps for the Derby, although the sample is awfully small. The Tampa comebacker was a great race, not a top, but a good springboard. The problem is that the Polycrap race is a throwout (IMHO). So, does now make the forward move he would have made had the poly race been on dirt, or did the huge 2 year old figure throw this horse for a loop. The deciding factor may be price, in that he seems likely to be either 1st or 2nd choice. Respect, but don't key him.

Curlin is a throwout for me, because of the lack of 2 year old foundation. His three figures this year are good enough to win the Derby, so you can't throw him out with confidence, but I believe in the 2 year old foundation (as compared to other "jinx's" like the BC winner and horses with "too much rest".

Circular Quay is also a contender. I don't like that Pletcher backed off with him, because it could hint at a problem, but if it isn't a sign of a problem, this horse has the 2 year old foundation, the breeding and the fastest 3 year old race of any of the contenders. As I said, Pletcher is loaded. I think he has the three most likely winners in AGS, Scat Daddy and this one.

Nobiz like Shobiz might finally step up, but I can't bet him at less than 10-1 (which he will likely be). 5 of his 6 races are the same figure and he hasn't gotten faster from 2 to 3. His sire stats say his offspring improve 4 points from 2 to 3 on average and this would make the jump up possible. However, single digit odds on a horse that needs to make a 2 point forward move to have a chance to win, are not appetizing to me.

Hard spun is the last of the "contenders" in my book, based on figures. He is fast, has had only a half point of progression from 2 to 3 (sire stats say 3 points is the norm for his sire). His races are spaced out and he will be rested coming into the race. Certainly must be used, but the indecision of his connections about what to do with him bothers me and gives me a bit of concern, which stops him from being my "key" in the race.

Thoughts?