Jimbo,

I too bought the special. For the most part, I agree with your analysis. Here are some minor areas where we disagree --

1) TGI -- You need to be careful in how you use this. You use it for Nobiz and AGS to say they are due to improve. However, the TGI combines all three year old efforts.....not just the first third of the year. Three year olds improve quite a bit in the autumn. You should not expect the full 3 yo season improvement in the front part of the year. That being said, I still agree with your analysis on each horse. I realize I am prejudiced on Scat Daddy, but your use of Johannesburg's TGI is unfair to him because he is in Johannesburg's first crop. The 3 yo TGI for Johannesburg ONLY includes the first several months of the year so it should be a lot flatter than other TGIs. Need to wait a year or two before drawing conclusions.

2) Scat Daddy -- I do not see the lack of improvement at 3 which you have found. He had a 1.75 top as a 2 yo and an 0.75 top in March of his 3 yo season. While a full point may not be a lot of improvement, it IS improvement. Although I am prejudiced, I tend to view his pattern as indicating another forward move is possible.

3) Curlin -- I hate this horse and do not know what to do with him. I had thought before I bought the special that his Ark Derby was a big jump up. It was not and his line is relatively flat. He looks to me like a faster version of Nobiz and Hard Spun. I wish I could toss him, but I can't. I certainly will not key him. I am concerned that he will make the race unbettable. (n.b. Showing Up came into the Derby last year with no 2 year old foundation and only two weeks rest. He ran a respectable number. Curlin has things more his way than Showing Up...only problem is that there is zero value in Curlin's odds).

Overall, it does not seem like that great a betting race to me as the contenders are obvious and I do not see a lot of hidden value. If one of the top five contenders (the three top Pletchers you identify, Street Sense, and Curlin) ends up not being among the top five betting choices, then that horse may provide some value as I see very little separating the top five (and it is extremely hard to imagine the exacta not coming from those five).