Derby Data Mining (627 Views)
Posted by:
BitPlayer (IP Logged)
Date: April 25, 2007 05:38PM
I'm intrigued by Nobiz, but Jimbo66's comment about not taking single-digit odds on a horse needing to improve 2 points to compete for the win struck a chord, so I thought I'd go to the TG Derby archives to seem how unlikely a 2-point improvement is. I found only 8 in a sample of 169 horses. They were (largest improvement first):
Barbaro
Giacomo
Proud Citizen
Victory Gallop
Silver Charm
China Visit (only one prior fig, earned at Nad Al Sheba)
Aptitude
Closing Argument
In my nonsystematic search for common threads, I found the following:
All (except for China Visit) either ran a new top or paired an old one in their last Derby prep.
All had three or fewer races at 3 going into the Derby.
All (except Aptitude, for whom path info was not provided) ran in the 3 path or wider on both turns in the Derby.
I was also curious about horses (like Street Sense) who established their pre-Derby tops at age 2. I found only the following four:
Outtta Here ran a 2.75 at 2, ran an 8.25 at Nad Al Sheba in his only pre-Derby start at 3, and ran a 3.25 in the Derby.
Master David ran a 2 as a 2yo, did no better than a 4 prior to the Derby as a 3yo, and ran a 6.5 in the Derby.
Captain Steve ran a 3.75 as a 2yo, did no better than a 5.25 prior to the Derby as a 3yo, and ran an 8 in the Derby.
Nationalore ran an 8 as a 2yo, did no better than a 9 prior to the Derby as a 3yo, and ran a 13.75 in the Derby.