Re: TG's Comment on the Derby (704 Views)
Posted by:
jimbo66 (IP Logged)
Date: April 22, 2007 01:18AM
Ronwar,
Before I looked at the T-Graph numbers, I was inclined to like Great Hunter, as I believe the Bluegrass is a throwout and he did get cut off. However, after looking at his number power, he looks too slow. The paired up "4's" from this year are way too slow, as you probably need a "0" to win this year (just a guess obviously).
He had a "2" last year in the BC Juvenile, which is his fastest race, but nothing else looks fast enough.
That said, I will use the horse a little bit underneath for a couple reasons. I do like the breeding for one. The other is a personal belief of mine (not substantiated by any detailed study!!!). On a couple of the bigger days of racing in the last few years, (A Cup day and Derby day) the T-Graph numbers have seemed light for California shippers. There is probably an old thread here where I asked Jerry about it after the BC. The two regsions where I sometimes look twice at the Tgraph figures are fast numbers from the Midlantic region that don't hold up when the horses ship and slower numbers from California where the horses ship and run faster. A lot of people would point to the medication issue to explain that first aberation (It seems that Mr. Magoo oversees the medication of horses in the Midlantic region).
Anyway, not meant to be controversial, so I apologize Jerry, since you just welcomed me back!
Jim