Re: TG's Comment on the Derby (737 Views)
Posted by:
jimbo66 (IP Logged)
Date: April 21, 2007 10:30PM
I hear you on the Johnny V. comment, but after the borderline nightmare rides he gave Against the Saturday in his last two races, it makes logical sense for him to ride Circular Quay. I am not saying Pletcher thinks CQ is best, but on the numbers they are all close and I am not sure Pletcher knows which one is best. Johnny V has done well with CQ and poorly with AGS.
As for Cowtown Cat, I don't like him at all. His last race of "2" was the only race he has run that makes him even a marginal contender and ran that number with things his own way on the lead. I don't see the horse getting that kind of trip in the Derby and he is much slower than CQ. AGS and SD.
As for the trainer trifecta, in this case it wouldn't be bad to have. In most races, Pletcher is the favorite or 2nd choice and rarely is value in a big race. Any Given Saturday figures 12-1 or so based on what I have seen offshore, Circular Quay will be about 8-1 and Scat Daddy about 10-1. Those are fair prices for horses with good figures and patterns, with top connections.