Kev-- let me make the point clearly. The single most important handicapping decision you make is about what data you use to make your decisions, since all decisions that follow are based on that one. That doesn't just go for which sheets to use, it applies to whether one should use sheets at all, and for that matter whether one should look for patterns.

With that in mind, trying to determine which data is better should be of paramount importance to all sheet players, as it is to Jimbo-- especially if you are looking for patterns, where those small difference can make a BIG difference.

I like the last 3 numbers, toss the worst, average the other 2 approach, in terms of giving an overall power rating. It's not perfect, Len and I would undoubtedly bet against the top rated horse often. But as I said, over a large sampling those pattern questions would wash out, from a statistical point of view, leaving it to a simple question of who is fastest, next fastest, etc.. It eliminates all judgment questions and arguments.

I would score it this way-- rate all the horses in every race that way, for both of us, in order. If the winning horse was number 2 on theirs and 4 on ours, they win. You could also do other studies-- top rated horse for both in every race, in terms of win % and ROI, for example. And if Len wants to go farther back with the figures, you could take best 3 of last 5 or something like that, or best top, although I think the original idea is most reflective of horses' current abilty.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 09/01/2005 12:00PM by TGJB.