Re: Matron & Atto Mile (678 Views)
Posted by: (IP Logged)
Date: September 16, 2005 07:25PM
I think the Atto is unbettable. It's hard for me to get negative on Leroy given that he's 8-10 on turf with 1 second against many solid Graded Stakes horses. I think the difference between him and some of the others is greater than the small edge in speed figures indicates. Plus, he's got the perfect style to get consistently easy trips. He should get another one from the rail. The only knock I can find is that that last field wasn't particularly good and he got a very easy trip on the lead. So he may not have been as sharp there as he was earlier in the year. Even that's a stretch though because you could argue that his last race was a prep for this and the BC.
India ran a very fast race in her last, but a lot of 2YOs don't duplicate their 5F and 5.5F figures when they stretch out to 7F. That goes double if they were wire to wire winners against maidens and are trying stakes company for the first time where they may take some serious early heat. It's tough to bet against a lightly raced Pletcher 2YO with the top figure, but I'm pretty sure she's not as good as she looks right now. It's a matter of whether "not being as good as she looks" is still good enough to win here. I might get a little interested in River's Prayer if the price is high enough. There's not much difference between her and horses like Folklore, but I think she comes out of pretty tough and hotly contested race out in CA where she rated for the first time.
In the Futurity I would like Master of Disaster, but he supposedly had some problems after his last race. You can see the gap in his WOs. So you have to at least wonder if he's 100%. After that I'm not a particularly big fan of Private Vow "yet" even though he seems to be developing as they stretch out. In his last race he wired a 3 horse field with a loose lead on a track that if anything was tilted towards speed. He's got to be at least a little suspect off tha trip. After that it starts becoming a crap shoot because you are counting on MoD not being 100% and PV not being as good as he looks to get someone else in there (like Union Course) and no one I can see merits a lot of confidence.