Re: Super Frolic Buy (492 Views)
Posted by: (IP Logged)
Date: September 22, 2005 09:05PM
TGJB,
The one thing that I find a bit perplexing is valuing the horse after it's racing career is over. No matter what is accomplished, that is in part dependent on the market conditions at the time. Yet there is no real intrinsic value that can be measured. Right now, I would guess the price/values are preposterous and that's why everyone that has accomplished anything is retired immediately to cash in. But if you pay up a little now based on the assumption of a market similar to what exists now, you could get burned badly even if the horse does well on the track. Bubbles eventually burst.
I think I'd rather buy in a generally depressed market on the assumption of a continuation of that depressed market and then be pleasantly surprised if I get more on the back end than I hoped for because conditions changed for the better.
It almost has to be a mistake to say "I want to buy horses" and then just cope with whatever the conditions are. Too often you are going to overpay even if you have a few insights in to where some "relative" value might exist.