Re: Matron & Atto Mile (683 Views)
Posted by:
SoCalMan2 (IP Logged)
Date: September 18, 2005 03:58PM
I respectfully disagree with Classhandicapper here. I like the ROTW analysis and believe today is a great day to go against Frankel's horse. Being 8 of 10 with one second against many graded stakes horses is irrelevant, and thinking like that will get him overbet. To me, a horse's speed and the likely number he is going to run is a lot more important than his 'boxscore,' and I am trying to take advantage of people who are betting things like a boxscore. While I agree he normally gets a good rail trip, I am not so sure about today. First, all those 1w 1w trips are a significant edge compared to a 1w trip, so his favorable running style is not as large an advantage today around one turn as it normally is around two. Second, it looks to me like there might be a bit of speed up front and he might not be as comfortable on the front end as normal. It is a very big difference when a horse is accustomed to getting a lead on the rail off a short run to the first turn of a two turn race where riders are thinking about conserving their horses. Here, these guys are gunning down a long straight away before the only turn in the race. The horses coming out of this type of race (one turn) are a lot more accustomed to what this takes whereas Frankel's horse is going to find himself in a new situation. If he finds himself behind horses going into the turn, then he will either have to go wide or face traffic. Also, that 5 lbs extra (or more against the others) is going to take a toll. I am also iffy on his pattern. I am definitely going to try to beat this horse today. King of Happiness does look very good. My problem is that I am worried about some of the others in here as well running nice ones. It would suck to beat that Brazilian horse and still lose because one of those others gets up. Today would be a great day to be able to access betfair and take people's action on Frankel's horse.
Anyway, good luck to all, and kudos on a good ROTW analysis.