Re: Matron & Atto Mile (544 Views)
Posted by: (IP Logged)
Date: September 18, 2005 04:56PM
"I respectfully disagree with Classhandicapper here. I like the ROTW analysis and believe today is a great day to go against Frankel's horse. Being 8 of 10 with one second against many graded stakes horses is irrelevant, and thinking like that will get him overbet."
Everyone disagrees with me about practically everything. Even when they agree it upsets them. :)
He may be overbet (I know I'm not betting him), but I'm of the opinion that boxscores actually do matter. It's not the boxscore per se, but what that boxscore tells us about the horse. I'm of the view that ability is not fully expressed by speed figures. That is, when horses accumulate records loaded with wins and seconds, they generally possess a few intangibles of ability that allow them to beat horses with similar figures (and a worse record) more often than the small edge in figures would indicate. That goes double on turf where there are plenty of close finishes decided by that liitle extra gameness, kick etc...
All that said, I think his biggest vulnerability is related to something no one else has brought up. The Breeders Cup Mile is the main objective for this horse -not the Atto Mile. Frankel is no dummy. He's not going to sacrifice the latter to win this. So the horse may not even be 100% today.
Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 09/18/2005 05:02PM by classhandicapper.