So Cal Man,

With all due respect, I don't think you understand what I am saying. I'll take a crack at it. You will probably not agree with me, but at least you will understand what I am sayng.

First off, I didn't think Leroy should be bet because he was 8-10 on turf. Nor did I say he was deserving of being a 3-5 shot. I said the difference between him and the other horses with similar speed figures was larger than the figures indicated. I still think that. Now even more so.

There are people that think that speed figures alone tell you everything about a horse's performance and ability. This board is inhabited by many such handicappers. I'm not one of them. I think speed figures are an indispensible part of evaluating a horse's performance and ability (that's why I use them), but not the whole story.

Obviously, you know I also look at things like pace, bias, etc... but that's not what I was referring to here. I was referring to the things that seperate horses that are less tangible than how fast a final time they run.

I think most handicappers would agree that horses with equal speed figures often have varying degrees early speed, acceleration, stamina, closing kick, determination, competitiveness, reserve racing energy, etc.... Even if you even partially agree, that's OK.

I have yet to find a way to mathematically measure all these intangibles even though some of them can be gleaned from the PPs and by actually watching the horses run. I think these intangibles are very important among horses with otherwise similar speed figures. What I also believe strongly is that as you move up the class ladder, not only do horses generally run faster, they also tend to possess greater quantities of these intangibles (though each horse has different qualities in different degrees).

Horse races are not sprints where every horse is running full out all the way on a straightaway. Races develop. In part, horses use these intangibles to get position, maintain position, dart through openings, duel off competitors, sustain their bid longer, run a faster pace, repulse a bid, etc...

I noticed something over the years. Horses that had accumulated outstanding records against equal or higher quality horses than their opponents (like Leroy) tended to vastly outperform horses with similar speed figures but inferior records against inferior horses (in terms of winning more often).

I think superior records like these are "very basic" way of telling you that a horse probably has more of the intangibles in greater quantities than his opponenets. (VERY BASIC)

They have a tad more acceleration, stamina, determination, etc... and/or have earned their figures against horses with more of those qualities than their opponents. In the old days they used to call it class. I think it matters. It's that little bit extra in the tank that allows one horse to outgame, outkick, outposition, duel off, etc... another horse and get the job done more often.

It's similar to a semi-pro ERA not being the same as a major league ERA and why I'd rather have Michael Jordan shooting the game wining shot than a statistically better outside shooter from some college team that had never faced the heat of an NBA final. Intangibles matter.

As far as betting goes, I couldn't really tell you what the appropriate values were in this case. "Maybe" they were closer than the odds. I didn't bet Leroy to win at that price (I did bet him to place at 2.80 though :).

What I am saying is that if you went into the race thinking Leroy and a bunch of the others were equal because they had equal speed figures you were alomst certainly mistaken. It doesn't matter if Leroy was overbet to win or not. What is important is that a handicapper actually assess the probabilties of a horse winning correctly (or at least close) otherwise you will bet a lot of horses that you think are overlays that are NOT!























Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 09/19/2005 11:20AM by classhandicapper.