Re: Questions about Figures (444 Views)
Posted by:
Chuckles_the_Clown2 (IP Logged)
Date: April 23, 2005 11:36AM
When I heard TCE and Lion Heart got Neg. 1's last year I was stunned. I discounted it but in reviewing the days I evenually accepted it hesitantly.
A negative 3.3 for Bandini is at first Blush unacceptable for me. I've already done a year to year comparison between 2004 and 2005 for Bluegrass Day. The races were significantly slower on Bluegrass Day 2004 yet TCE ran faster. Another item i'm convinced existed this year was a tricky outside bias, as well as, the traditional speed bias.
Keeneland is always quirky, theres a history of open margin wins there and of horses coming in off the Bluegrass with very competitive numbers and running up the track in the Derby and disappearing for life. Caveat the Lexington goes the other way.
At this time, I need to review more, but I'm currently inclined to discount a huge number for Bandini or even a pair for High Limit. Frankels do sometimes bounce. High Limit wants little part of real ground in my opinion.
To summarize, we certainly have 2 big win races on very quirky and questionable surfaces with the Wood and Bluegrass. Two results in the terms of numbers that can be questioned upon their face in some repects. However, even if you discount both of them to Zeds its still quite feasible the Wood and Bluegrass winners could fill out the perfecta. I'll have it for the minimum. Pace and Post position is gonna play its role of course. Bandini apparently jumped to about 7.2 points to a new top. I just can't currently see anyway to corroborrate that.
Post Edited (04-23-05 12:08)