Re: Questions about Figures (557 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: April 23, 2005 06:37PM
What I'm saying is, it was only the Rebel, he didn't win by 17 lengths, and the horses behind him had never won a stake to that point, I believe. I gave him the best number ever run by a 3yo, Beyer gave him about what he gave Bandini, or thereabouts.
For the record-- Beyer had the La Derby too fast, but just for the winner (ground loss). He has this too slow in part for the same reason, and probably in part for the same reason he robbed SJ last year. None of us are making figures based on visual impressions-- we do it based on the figures of the horses. Ragozin gets a lot of them wrong, as I have pointed out often-- but the fact that he and I agree should tell you that a) the track stayed the same speed, and b) it's right.
In simplest terms-- you can pull a race out because it's clear another variant gives it a MORE logical result. But if you pull this race away from the day, you get LESS likely scenarios-- as I pointed out, the percentage chance of 6 out of 7 3yos in a GI not running back to their previous tops is very small.
TGJB