Re: Questions about Figures (448 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: April 23, 2005 02:09PM
Jimbo-- Here are the BG, Ill. Derby, and Ark Derby. I did not break out the BG, the track was within a half point either way of being the same for all 3 routes (which is the only reason why Ragozin got it right), and as you will see only the winner ran a new top, with two horses pairing and the others running well off their tops. This is what I meant about stake races where the winner runs 4 or more points better than anyone else producing some big numbers.
For both the Arkansas Derby and Ill Derby I ADDED at least 3 points compared to all other routes on the day (Haw was complicated, as the track as a whole was changing speed, but if I had done the race with the other routes, GG would have gotten a better figure than BR). I have no idea how Ragozin came up with that slow a figure for GG-- it is way, way wrong. He also has some other problems in his Derby numbers-- I might get to that later.
On the other hand, Beyer blew the BG big time, and it's not the first time he has been afraid to give out a big number. Some might recall that he robbed SJ last year when he won the Rebel (neg 3 3/4), and I suspect that is what happened with BR's GP win this year.
The number that is in question is AA's first start this year, toughest stake figure I have had to do in a long time. I did cut it loose (added, as I said at the time), and I reviewed it a week ago. Still not enough info-- hopefully some more out of the race will run back in the next week, before the final Derby sheets.
http://www.thorograph.com/hold/d2005.pdf
TGJB