Re: Questions about Figures (541 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: April 25, 2005 03:48PM
Jimbo-- I go by numbers, not ran well, so I wouldn't buy any of that La Derby stuff under any circumstance, but as it happens Sort It Out has now run better TWICE than he did that day, and HL paired the number. KCB ran a 16 next time-- I'm assuming you don't think the FG number was off by 12 points.
The way it works with this stuff is, you have to come up with an alternate theory for the figures for the race, like "add 3". Since Vicarage and KCB ran much worse and Sort It Out ran better, it's tough to see the alternate theory, and that's aside from how the race hung together figure-wise, or with the day. I won't be more solid on a figure this year than that one. Which is not to say those behind HL are world beaters-- nobody here was saying that.
As for HL-- this is a very complicated situation, because that pattern for Frankel is not that pattern for other trainers, and it's complicated further by the new "restrictions" in place for the Derby. I'm trying to find out whether they are in place for other races as well-- Dutrow has the odds-on favorite for the Oaks, and there are a lot of other stakes opening week at CD.
As for Vicarage, we're going to have to deal with him with Santana Strings in the Trial this week, and unfortunately he is now well rested. Which is when he has run his other good ones.
TGJB