Re: Questions about Figures - David Rex (637 Views)
Posted by:
jimbo66 (IP Logged)
Date: April 24, 2005 12:18PM
Davidrex,
As for Smarty Jones last year, congrats if you used the T-Graph figures to nail the winner. I was just starting to use the figures then and I bought the seminar to try and understand the figures and methodology. Jerry did NOT select Smarty Jones, he called Lion Heart/The Cliff's Edge 50% to win the race and also liked Read the Footnotes. In hindsight, this was really ironic. Jerry and T-Graph were well ahead of the curve in realizing Smarty Jones was an incredibly fast horse. However, they thought he was too fast and would bounce in the Derby. So, having the information that he was so fast, did NOT help most sheets players, as he was a bet against in the Derby on T-Graph and Rags.
I suspect you have a similar situation this year. Bellamy Road at -5 on T-Graph is now 10 points of development off his 2 year old top, even with 4 weeks of rest, he probably is a bet against. Len has already said so on his board. Bandini ran a new top by over 6 points, 3 weeks before the derby, which probably makes him a bet against as well, for sheets players.
I find this ironinc again, especially in the case of BAndini. Sheets players who believe teh figures, KNOW that Bandini is much faster than the rest of the public who see thke 103 beyer. Yet, methodology prevents most of them from betting on him off the new huge top, 3 weeks before the derby.
This is less true for Bellamy Road though, because he got a huge Beyer figure also (120). The "edge" in using Sheets for Bellamy Road, is that the race before the Wood is also very fast on the Sheets, a slightly negative number. So, although it was nowhere near the Wood number, it was very fast adn shows that he has run 2 very fast races. If you look at the DRF on Bellamy Road, the wood really looks like an abberation, going from a 96 beyer to a 120, so many people might dismiss him as freaking in the Wood, and not necessarily that fast. Sheets players know Beyer missed the Gulfstream race by 8-10 points and so he really should have a line of 105 beyer to 120, which looks more consistent and fast.