Re: Questions about Figures (405 Views)
Posted by:
richiebee (IP Logged)
Date: April 25, 2005 07:03PM
ctc:
What is sneaky about his breeding? His pop won 2/3s of the TC.
I have been reading the Form since 1975. I have been using TGs for about 4 months, trying to get comfortable with patterns, etc. I am not yet certain neurally how much faster a horse who ran "2" is than a horse who ran a "3" etc.
I am really grappling with the fact that Sun King's no factor BG effort earned him a TG # of 2 (Beyer 88), while High Fly's Fla Derby win was a TG# of 1 (Beyer 102).
I'm going to respond to your Sun King post using numbers I'm more familiar with. If the numbers are wrong, so be it.
Sun King's last race Beyer was 88. His Beyer at Tampa was 91. As we all know, Sea Hero was the last horse to win Ky Derby w/out Beyering over 100 in his last prep before the Derby. (Sea Hero Beyered 91 running 4th in the BG.)
Sea Hero gives hope to Wilko and Noble Causeway supporters, with his relatively low Beyers coming in and the fact that the Derby was his first 3YO stakes win. Sea Hero and Real Quiet are the only 2 horses since 93 not to have won a stake as a 3YO before winning the Derby. If you think anything of this angle, eliminate Wilko, Noble Cause and of course Giacomo and Wild Desert from the top spot.
This year some of the non numerical observations might be less important; I can not remember a year when some many animals are coming in off last race wins, in some cases dominant wins. Surprisingly, only 4 of the last 12 Derby winners won their final prep: Smarty, War Emblem, FuPeg and Sun King's pop, Charismatic.