Re: Questions about Figures (448 Views)
Posted by:
Chuckles_the_Clown2 (IP Logged)
Date: April 25, 2005 04:16PM
TGJB said:
"all the routes were the same, and there is no other way to do the BG that makes any sense at all."
I know this question was directed at TGJB, but if a certain part of the track is better than other parts thats certainly a variable. Bandini was only one path wider than High Limit most of the race. The question is was there a positive bias in that one more path wide and how many lengths did it amount to? Its very hard to answer those questions. If you've ascertained a wide bias however and the figure under consideration was earned on it, then it seems logical that figure has to be discounted compared to those running inside on the deeper part of the track, especially so if a "projection figures" are employed, because the 1 assigned to the inside horse is against the bias while the outside horse gets scored off that bias hindered 1 and gets lengths of credit for an easier strip to move on. (Extra distance run factored of course) Tough Stuff to sift through with any accuracy, assuming a legitimate bias existed.
The NX1X horses in the other distance races Bluegrass Day came home in about 6.5
Not great, not horrible. Bandini came home in about 13.40 after running on a faster pace. An extrapolated 8.5 marks for him would have been about a 1.43.46 or approximately 6-7 lengths faster than the NW1X horses who both ran 1.44.72
Thats factoring wide of course, but on raw time it appears High Limit would have been life and death with the NW1X's assuming the track remained the same. Now you can't really do this comparison fairly because of gate and pace issues, but I do think it sheds some light on High Limits effort. I don't know, maybe Gold Mask and Spun Sugar earned 1's. (Though they may have been wider than High Limit).
Tuff Stuff.