Re: Travers (727 Views)
Posted by: (IP Logged)
Date: August 24, 2005 11:29AM
jimbo,
I agree that your pace scenario is the most likely one. I just never assume that my "most likely" pace scenario is the one that will occur. It's just one more probability.
I think it would be suicidal for FA to run with BR early. But I want to bet against Bellamy Road in this race despite the fact that I think he will get loose. Zito may be doing well off layoffs lately, but it's still a very tough task to bring a horse back into a Grade 1 10F race off a layoff this long - especially off an inury.
IMO, BR had one huge race (the Wood) and it came on what I considered a somewhat suspect track against Grade 2/Grade 3 horses. His Derby was a lot better than it looks on paper because he was being used hard on that pace while wide to keep his position (even if the outside was better that day). All told, I think his reputation off the Wood exceeds what he has demonstrated to date. Add that to the layoff and I think he's a bet against if the odds are fairly low.
The real question for me is seperating FA and RR. I became a fan of FA off his Derby performance - which I thought was very good. RR beat him last time out and I think he might be a shade the better horse right now (though that is far from certain based on speed figures), but IMO it's just a matter of time before RR falls apart. IMO, it's a close call between those two and figuring out which of them will like 10F more complicates the matter.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/24/2005 11:31AM by classhandicapper.