TGJB,

The one small problem I have with your layoff angle is that horses like Commentator (beating limited allowance horses), Sun King beating High Limit (who was also off the same layoff) and some others that came back successfully did so into relatively soft spots or at least reasonable spots for bringing a horse back.

Those kinds of layoffs aren't nearly as tough as coming back into a Grade 1 race against sharp horses of similar ability (at least according the ROI stats I have seen). Often, these kinds of horses are among the best "bet againsts" you will ever find in Grade 1 races.

Granted Zito did it with Birdstone (thought the Belmont was more a matter of Smarty and others toasting each other). So maybe he's just so skilled at it you have to give him a little more of the benefit of the doubt relative to other highly skilled layoff trainers that generally fail at it, but I think you still have to consider it a negative because of all the circumstance.

1. BR has 1 huge effort (The Wood) and one very good effort (in Florida - I agree that that was pretty huge for that time of year), but both were under ideal conditions against pretty weak groups.

2. He was not laid off for a freshening. He was hurt.

3. Zito wasn't sure whether he was going to run 7F or 10F as recently as a few days ago. That doesn't sound like a man that was preparing a horse specifically for a 10F race. It sounds like a man that was getting his horse fit enough to run.

Anyway, I'm not saying he has no chance or anything. My negative view is based on the premise that he'll be the favorite and I wouldn't want him as the favorite. At some price he's obviously more attractive and I would refrain from betting against him.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/26/2005 01:44PM by classhandicapper.