SPA,

This one (AH) doesn't look that good in G1 races and in this race in particular. That was an optical illusion with one horse running out with another one pulling up. Good luck to you with AH.

DGM scary bad number TGJB refers to was equal to the scary bad number Bellamy ran in last race. So betting Bellamy is not equally scary?..............HMMMM

Bellamy Road obviously scary fast one out of 6 times but also has soundness issues. His 3 yo top while incredible was achieved with ideal conditions against a very weak bunch. Think this one has been treated with kid gloves due to connections and breeding value. We may never see that race again. If he doesn't run very well this time would you be surprised to see him retired? Project this one anywhere from a -2 to a + 2. Your guess is as good as mine.

Andromeda’s Hero Has won only a Non graded stakes and is typically slower than most in here. Finished a beaten 3rd by 11 3/4 (5 horse field), 2nd by 7 and 8th by 7.5 and the famous phantom finish at OP 3rd by 8.3/4. Too slow and lucky if he completes a superfecta. Project him to be between +2 and +4.

Checkov MSW winner so far but obviously more has been expected especially for the $3.3MM purchase price. Cycling to new top in my opionon and Stevens keeps the faith. One of these dayshe will pop a big oneand Biancone's been on role lately. Project and in the $ finish at about -0.5 to +1.

Roman Ruler looked the part in last race. Expect further continued improvement albeit not major. Looks to be one of two coming in at peak form. Project anywhere from -2 to -1. To me he's the one to beat. Has Bailey in the saddle and the right running style for this one.

Don't get Mad last was a clunker for sure. Stevens chose Chekhov instead of this one. Project an improved effort here and lifetime top. May not be enough, unless the BIG 3 hook up early and often. Will play this one underneath but will play one ticket including this guy on top should the worst case scenario for the big three develop. I doubt they will run around Merry go round style like they did in the BC last year or this years Whitney. Project from a -0.5 to +1.

Reverberate still eligible for NW2. Looking for a check at best. Too slow for these. Project from +2 to +4. Good luck Sal.

Flower Alley Ran a career top off of a nice set up in race for that one. Already been beaten by RR two back. Tends to want to press pace but can't let BR get away easy either to have any kind of shot. Expect this one to press BR from half mile mark on. Let’s see if he has stamina to get 10F. Also potential to regress off of latest top.


I see this race going one of three ways. Since you have 3 deep closers in this race and BR the only legit early speed, Scenario 1) BR on open and easy lead early with little pressure coming until the final turn. If that happens start going to the windows to cash your tickets for BR. Scenario 2) Flower Alley and Reverberate stalk and press BR from the start or at least half mile pole with RR sitting just off them. RR runs them down the lane with BR/Chekhov and DGM and AH all potentially in the tri/super.
Scenario 3 least likely is that the Big three all hook up often and early and grind themselves into the ground. DGM will run them down deep stretch providing he best value scenario for gimmicks with BR/RR/Chekhov underneath.

I am betting both Scenario 2 and 3, with Win on RR at 3-1 or better and Exacta's & Tri’s with RR/BR-DGM-Chekhov, then a small one with DGM/RR, BR, and Checkhov

Good luck to you all.

The Graveyard of Favorites lives for another day.

NC Tony




Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/26/2005 12:12PM by NoCarolinaTony.