Re: Travers (580 Views)
Posted by: (IP Logged)
Date: August 24, 2005 01:05PM
Jimbo,
BR's race prior to the Wood did get a negative number on TG, but others didn't make it as fast.
He did destroy that Wood field, but I think part of that was the phenomenon I often bring up where a dominant speed horse meets a lot of inferior horses. The inferior horses often try to run with the superior horse (like Scrappy T did) or keep up and they wind up getting beat by a lot more lengths than the figures would have suggested. I played Scrappy T in his next start out of the Wood because I was almost certain he was a lot better than he looked based on the figure he earned in the Wood chasing BR.
What I think it comes down to is that IMO a -5 loose on the lead against weaker horses on a track that's playing kindly to speed is not the same thing as a -5 against solid horses when you are tested strongly on a more even track. So if his reputation is based on his lone -5 and a -1 (or thereabouts) against very overmatched horses while loose in Florida, IMO he's overrated even if he's better than these.
Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 08/24/2005 01:10PM by classhandicapper.
Sorry, only registered users may post in this forum.