Re: Travers (551 Views)
Posted by:
Chuckles_the_Clown2 (IP Logged)
Date: August 28, 2005 06:56PM
classhandicapper Wrote:
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> CTC,
>
> The part that I think is worthy of debate is
> whether a -5 (or a -3, or a -1..) earned with a
> loose lead on a track that was kind to speed
> against Grade 3 animals is equal to wire to wire
> win with pressure from another Grade 1 animal on
> an honest track.
Agreed the conditions were not likely to favor the same open length victory. The issue in the long run though has to be the reliability of the figure. Is the horse truly capable of the speed assigned in the figure? Do you really think a front end horse that gets hooked with 3 marks to go is gonna run slower than one that cruises those last 3 marks due to his rivals coming unglued and their equipment coming undue?
On the numbers some actually anticipated Flower Alley getting buried by five lengths or more. People bet money on it and barring form going south, that just wasn't ever going to happen, even with the tactical advantage. Next time, don't be surprised if Flower Alley wins by more due to a change in the tactical conditions. I think Alley has shown more. Distorted Humor is not a bad sire, Funny Cide, Commentator. Who really thought he was less likely to get the distance, especially on the Jim Dandy? They are relatively closely matched animals and the tactical considerations prevented me from betting the race. Bounce possibility negated a perfecta with them as well.
I hope TGJB has a season to Distorted Humor. If he does, he's in the catbirds seat.