Re: Travers (550 Views)
Posted by: (IP Logged)
Date: August 25, 2005 09:58AM
NCT,
Jimbo seems to be having some second thoughts about whether or not BR is prepared properly. I never had any second thoughts about that. I think coming into a Grade 1 race off a 112 day layoff is a huge disadvantage even when the trainer is skilled with layoffs.
My assessment of BR's ability has changed a little. When I viewed his PP's for the Derby along side Flower Alley's, he looked better than I remembered. Despite the figures they earned in that race, IMO they both ran very well. FA has since demontrated that.
I think BR is probably the best horse, but I don't think he's best by enough to overcome the layoff disadvantage. So if he's the favorite or close, I'll take a stand against him.
I am less sure what to do with RR and FA. They ran similar races against each other and both subsequently ran very good races next time out. IMO, neither inspires clear cut confidence in their ability to get 10F. So I can't seperate them on that. I think RR is probably slightly more likely to fall apart given his history of hoof problems and Baffert as the trainer.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/25/2005 11:09AM by classhandicapper.