Re: Belmont possibles (743 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: May 19, 2015 03:40PM
After the race all winners are 100%. It doesn't mean they were good bets (or bad ones). There are plenty of times where the most likely winner is a bet against because of his price relative to his actual chance of winning. Which in this game is subjective, to a degree. In some cases more than others.
And re an earlier conversation, overlay (or underlay) is defined as the relationship between a horse's odds and actual chance of winning, per a handicapper's opinion. It drives me nuts when the TVG/HRTV guys say that because a horse was 6-1 in the ML and goes off 12-1 he was an overlay. ML (as all here must know) is the oddsmaker's assessment of what the public's opinion will be, has nothing to do with actual chance of winning, even his own opinion on that question.