Re: Belmont possibles (436 Views)
Posted by:
ringato3 (IP Logged)
Date: May 19, 2015 04:49PM
toppled,
Will just agree to disagree. I speak french, you german. Or something like that.
Trainer Stats are NOT a big part of the puzzle. (unless you define "big" differently than I do.
I can think of 8 things that are more important to me.
1. Speed figures.
2. competition in the race. (speed figures of those horses)
3. track bias for all recent races so i can see how the speed figures were earned.
4. track surface the day of the race, especially if sloppy.
5. pace scenario in the race
6. i watch the recent replays of all the horses in the race, so i can understand trips and therefore again know HOW the figures were earned (and either adjust up or down)
7. distance the race is being run at. Specifically, each horses propensity run better at shorter or longer distances based on past performances
8. Pedigree, especially as it relates to things like trying a classic distance of ground.
Then I get around to trainer stats.
There are exceptions:
1. Layoffs - trainer stats are crucial
2. first time starters - trainer stats again crucial
You can toss on principle. i can't. Just because I look at more factors, think about more variables and make a more well informed decision, doesn't mean I will be right, at least not in the short term, but I am comfortable in the long term results being better for me when I am not closed minded. Closed minded is rarely the right way to go on any topic......
Good luck
Rob