Re: Belmont possibles (644 Views)
Posted by:
T Severini (IP Logged)
Date: May 20, 2015 07:33PM
flushedstraight Wrote:
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> Simple (maybe not) question for Ask The Experts
>
> Many similarities between Materiality and Summer
> Bird and a few maybe big differences... [color=#FF0066][b]Who
> has(had) a better pattern going into the Belmont[/b]?[/color]
>
> Facts:
> both unraced at 2
> both 3 starts then derby then belmont
> both tops in derby prep and regression in derby
> SB first start 7 weeks later (less spacing into
> derby)
> SB top a 7.5 pt leap
> Mat top a 2.75 pt hop
> Mat top of neg 2 is 3 pts faster than SB top
> Mat derby regression larger at 4 pts with SB at
> 1.75 pts
>
> https://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/bel2009.p
> df
>
> Note any Mat excuses in derby is not relevant to
> question; he ran a 2
> Several angles to consider re Mat but this is
> striclcty about the TG pattern
Not relevant to the question? Did I highlight the question properly? To deny any relevancy would appear to leave one on somewhat of an island. An island without much available for sustenance.
I thought a 2 in the circumstances was close to outstanding and wouldn't dream of making a pattern read on one of the subject horses upon that trip. Bad Trips, i.e. Wide Trips get scored for Patterns, but run impeded trips, especially out of character run impeded trips don't fit well into formulating a Pattern Read.
If that's the correlation you're seeing, maybe it will work out for you.
I don't see any pattern significance because I don't believe the 2 is representative.